A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
